India is better prepared to deal with any further US Fed tapering, but the country needs to remain vigilant to face eventualities, Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said.
The rupee plunged 90 paise to close at an all-time low of 80.86 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said the US Fed's rate hike and escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine sapped risk appetite. Moreover, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a muted trend in domestic equities, risk-off mood and firm crude oil prices weighed on the rupee.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status-quo on the key interest rates for the third time in a row in its upcoming bi-monthly policy review despite the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiking benchmark rates, as domestic inflation is within the RBI's comfort zone, say experts. The borrowing cost which started rising in May last year has stabilised with RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February when it was raised from 6.25 per cent. In the previous two bi-monthly policy reviews in April and June the benchmark rate was retained.
She will replace Ben Bernanke as the Chair of the Federal Reserve.
An aggressive rate hike by the US Fed and the possibility of a recession can trigger a slide in these stocks, which will be a good opportunity to buy from a long-term perspective.
Markets end in red; bluechips struggle to keep pace.
With the kind of money and talent that has gone into making this movie, a really good biopic of a personality like Savarkar could be made. But this film is lost in polemics, as is the case with almost every biopic and period drama today, observes Utkarsh Mishra.
Despite its admirable competence and proven track record, the RBI doesn't have the capacity to supervise an economy that's growing so fast and becoming larger by the year, points out T C A Srinivasa Raghavan.
'If individual stocks start falling 25% to 30% or more, then I doubt how many of them will be able to withstand that (kind of selloff). That is when you'll see panic coming in.'
Gold prices on Wednesday sky-rocketed by Rs 340 at Rs 11,510 per ten gram as investors directed their money to the precious metal after the dollar fell, sparked by Federal Reserve cutting key interest rates.
The cut is being seen as an emergency measure to boost the US economy.
'Returns can be very variable in equity markets.' 'That is why I tell small investors don't put 100 per cent of your money in equities, even if you are young.'
The Federal Open Market Committee's statement after meeting in Washington said inflation has been "elevated" and remains a risk, using words identical to the last decision on June 29.\n\n
Nifty PSU Bank index gained 1% led by Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Syndicate Bank and IDBI Bank
US gold futures slid over 1 per cent on Thursday, while silver futures dropped 2 per cent.
A weak dollar overseas also aided the rupee rise while fresh sell-off by foreign funds in domestic stocks capped the currency's gains, forex dealers said.
The gold and crude oil prices, which have risen to records this year, may ease a little if the US central bank Federal Reserve cut rates at its meeting on Tuesday, an analyst said.The Fed is scheduled to meet today to consider revision of interest rates. The US banking sector regulator has already cut the rate at which it lends to banks by 0.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent at an emergency weekend meeting on Monday.
Historically, March has been a volatile month for Indian equity markets. To begin with, it marks the end of a financial year, wherein there is some compulsive portfolio rebalancing trade by large funds - domestic and foreign. Retail investors, too, prefer to 'cash in' on their gains and losses before the financial year runs out.
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
An escalation in the already simmering tensions between North and South Korea, China and Taiwan, and Russia and Ukraine could prove to be a bigger worry for the markets over the next few months rather than central bank policy action, said analysts. The markets, they said, are still not fully factoring in this possibility. "The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is another geopolitical worry.
'While foreign institutional investor flows are still negative, they will turn positive in the latter part of 2023 as India's resilient growth becomes perceptible.'
Expect heightened volatility and stress to hit the markets. Caution may be the need of the hour, alerts Akash Prakash.
The rupee rose by 12 paise to close at 79.78 against the US dollar on Monday due to a weak dollar in overseas markets and an improved appetite for riskier assets. Stronger regional currencies also supported the rupee sentiment ahead of the US Fed policy decision on Wednesday. Weak domestic equities and FII outflows, however, capped sharp gains. At the inter-bank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.86 against the greenback and moved in a range of 79.70 to 79.87 in the day trade.
It is by now quite clear that in all likelihood the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in its next meeting in mid-December.
From the Sensex pack, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, NTPC and UltraTech Cement emerged as major winners, closing the day with a gain of up to 3.33 per cent. On the other hand, Asian Paints, ITC, L&T and SBI were the laggards, ending the session up to 3.95 per cent lower. Of the 30 Sensex stocks, 14 closed the day in green, while on the 50-stock index Nifty 25 scrips ended with gains.
The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.45/46 per dollar, weaker from Wednesday's 61.35/36.
'India seems to be on a relatively better wicket compared to other emerging markets.'
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
It could be a tough week In the run-up to such an event, the market is always nervous.
Investors may take a 5 to 10 per cent exposure to silver. 'Have a long-term investment horizon when investing in silver ETFs to ride out short-term market fluctuations.'
Only the top 5 per cent profit makers account for 75 per cent of profits.
M&M was the biggest loser in the Sensex chart, falling 6.39 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Nestle India, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, ITC, JSW Steel, HDFC Bank and RIL. On the other hand, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, L&T and Infosys were among the winners, rising up to 2.10 per cent.
The broader NSE Nifty shuttled between 10,784.65 and 10,689.80, before ending 21.30 points, or 0.20 per cent, lower at 10,718.05.
The Indian rupee may remain under depreciation pressure on account of plateauing of exports and subsequent widening of the current account deficit, said the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday. It said the "risks to the current account balance stem from multiple sources". The country's current account deficit (CAD) widened to 4.4 per cent of the GDP in the quarter ended September from 2.2 per cent in April-June due to higher trade gap, as per latest data of the Reserve Bank of India.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings of corporates and domestic macroeconomic data will influence trading in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Foreign funds' trading activity, monthly automobile sales data and global trends would also guide market movement this week, they added. Markets would remain closed on Monday on account of 'Maharashtra Day'.
Markets ended higher, amid firm global cues, and are on track for third straight day of gains.
Pharma shares extended losses after the government's ban on combination drugs.
Broader markets underperformed indices with BSE Midcap down 0.43% while the Smallcap index fell 0.07%.
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The broader markets traded positively with mid-caps and small-caps rising 0.5 per cent each on the BSE.
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